Sing along, part 2 (playing with numbers)

110 China LIDs on the wall, 110 LIDs on the wall....

On the 9th of May I wrote that our agency had 112 unique LIDs before ours and that we could track our progress via monthly newsletters from the agency. As of the July referrals, that number has dropped to 110 LIDs. That means it took two months to refer two LIDs. Now, with me being intrigued by numbers and having little to work with other than LIDs, I decided to do a little extrapolating.

Okay, say our agency averages one LID per referral month from here out. That would make our wait just over 9 years. That seems insane. So suppose that things do pick up a bit and referrals average two LIDs per month. That drops our wait to 4.6 years. That sounds more realistic. But at some point I do believe that due to the drop in the number of applications post-05/07 rules, things will go back to 3-4 LIDs per month. With our LID being 12 months behind the new rules, it's the pre-05/07 dossiers that are causing most of the current backlog.

Of the 110 LIDs before us, 66 are for February to April, 2007. So let's assume those are referred at an average rate of 2 LIDs per month. That gives us 2.75 years to get through the main backlog. And let's assume the 44 post-05/07 LIDs are referred at a rate of 4 per month. That gives us a .9-year wait to get through the post-05/07 backlog. Add those together and you get a total wait of 3.65 years, which is a fair bit more optimistic than some of the online calculators would have you believe! Without historic data it's impossible to say if my figures have any base in reality, but right now I need to look on the bright side of life.

And hey, wouldn't I be a party-pooper if I had anything other than optimistic thoughts on the 4th of July!