Four Months

Whoops, I almost forgot our fourth monthly anniversary! There's been little to report, other than to admit that I've been quite busy with business-related issues lately. To be honest, keeping my mind occupied by things other than adoption has been good. I've achieved a lot and haven't felt as stressed this month.

On an unrelated front, I'm very happy that Qantas flight 30 landed and that everyone was safe, if a bit shaken by their experience. I'm due to fly in a few weeks, and I'm not the worst flyer in the world, but I'm not entirely comfortable with the idea of cruising 40,000 feet above the ground. I'm not flying with Qantas, but knowing that the crew were able to respond so well in a time of crisis gives me a bit of comfort. There are 350 passengers who probably feel the same way this evening.

Where's PAP #29,998?

This is how I feel today, like I'm lost in a sea of PAPs and confusion! The wait is bad enough, but these silly i-600 vs. i-800 issues are driving me mad. Wouldn't it be nice to fast forward to Spring of 2009 and bypass the Olympics and the USCIS issues!

More fun with numbers

I've really got to lay off the number-crunching, because a) I'm not really achieving anything, and b) I'm not a statistician! But playing with numbers does help me to put things into perspective and get myself into a zen place about our pending adoption.

This time I ventured into a realm of terror--Excel! I am not an Excel person, normally avoiding it at all costs. But I wanted to make a graph or chart and couldn't think of any better software package, at least not one that resides on my computer. So I gathered my figures and asked my husband to help me figure out how to create a basic chart.

WARNING: This chart covers referrals received by my agency only, so it may not be relevant to your agency!

What you're seeing is referrals by year, with each colour corresponding to a different year. This chart doesn't address LIDs in any way; it is based on the day a batch of referrals arrived. For example, the referrals shown for July 2008 would be those received this week. And again, referrals are specific to my agency.

I'm a visual person, and for me this helps more clearly illustrate the change in referral patterns and helps me come to terms with the slow-down that is so often talked about.

Sing along, part 2 (playing with numbers)

110 China LIDs on the wall, 110 LIDs on the wall....

On the 9th of May I wrote that our agency had 112 unique LIDs before ours and that we could track our progress via monthly newsletters from the agency. As of the July referrals, that number has dropped to 110 LIDs. That means it took two months to refer two LIDs. Now, with me being intrigued by numbers and having little to work with other than LIDs, I decided to do a little extrapolating.

Okay, say our agency averages one LID per referral month from here out. That would make our wait just over 9 years. That seems insane. So suppose that things do pick up a bit and referrals average two LIDs per month. That drops our wait to 4.6 years. That sounds more realistic. But at some point I do believe that due to the drop in the number of applications post-05/07 rules, things will go back to 3-4 LIDs per month. With our LID being 12 months behind the new rules, it's the pre-05/07 dossiers that are causing most of the current backlog.

Of the 110 LIDs before us, 66 are for February to April, 2007. So let's assume those are referred at an average rate of 2 LIDs per month. That gives us 2.75 years to get through the main backlog. And let's assume the 44 post-05/07 LIDs are referred at a rate of 4 per month. That gives us a .9-year wait to get through the post-05/07 backlog. Add those together and you get a total wait of 3.65 years, which is a fair bit more optimistic than some of the online calculators would have you believe! Without historic data it's impossible to say if my figures have any base in reality, but right now I need to look on the bright side of life.

And hey, wouldn't I be a party-pooper if I had anything other than optimistic thoughts on the 4th of July!